Estimates of the duration of the early and late stage of gambiense sleeping sicknessReport as inadecuate


Estimates of the duration of the early and late stage of gambiense sleeping sickness


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Publication Date: 2008-02-08

Language: English

Type: Article

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Citation: Checchi, F., Filipe, J. A. N., Haydon, D. T., Chandramohan, D., & Chappuis, F. (2008). Estimates of the duration of the early and late stage of gambiense sleeping sickness.

Description: RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are.

Abstract: Abstract Background The durations of untreated stage 1 (early stage, haemo-lymphatic) and stage 2 (late stage, meningo-encephalitic) human African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) due to Trypanosoma brucei gambiense are poorly quantified, but key to predicting the impact of screening on transmission. Here, we outline a method to estimate these parameters. Methods We first model the duration of stage 1 through survival analysis of untreated serological suspects detected during Médecins Sans Frontières interventions in Uganda and Sudan. We then deduce the duration of stage 2 based on the stage 1 to stage 2 ratio observed during active case detection in villages within the same sites. Results Survival in stage 1 appears to decay exponentially (daily rate = 0.0019; mean stage 1 duration = 526 days [95%CI 357 to 833]), possibly explaining past reports of abnormally long duration. Assuming epidemiological equilibrium, we estimate a similar duration of stage 2 (500 days [95%CI 345 to 769]), for a total of nearly three years in the absence of treatment. Conclusion Robust estimates of these basic epidemiological parameters are essential to formulating a quantitative understanding of sleeping sickness dynamics, and will facilitate the evaluation of different possible control strategies.

Identifiers: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2334-8-16

This record's URL: http://www.dspace.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/237991

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Rights Holder: Checchi et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.





Author: Checchi, FrancescoFilipe, Joao A. N.Haydon, Daniel T.Chandramohan, DanielChappuis, Francois

Source: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/237991



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