Potential health gains and health losses in eleven EU countries attainable through feasible prevalences of the life-style related risk factors alcohol, BMI, and smoking: a quantitative health impact assessmentReport as inadecuate




Potential health gains and health losses in eleven EU countries attainable through feasible prevalences of the life-style related risk factors alcohol, BMI, and smoking: a quantitative health impact assessment - Download this document for free, or read online. Document in PDF available to download.

BMC Public Health

, 16:734

Health policies, systems and management in high-income countries

Abstract

BackgroundInfluencing the life-style risk-factors alcohol, body mass index BMI, and smoking is an European Union EU wide objective of public health policy. The population-level health effects of these risk-factors depend on population specific characteristics and are difficult to quantify without dynamic population health models.

MethodsFor eleven countries—approx. 80 % of the EU-27 population—we used evidence from the publicly available DYNAMO-HIA data-set. For each country the age- and sex-specific risk-factor prevalence and the incidence, prevalence, and excess mortality of nine chronic diseases are utilized; including the corresponding relative risks linking risk-factor exposure causally to disease incidence and all-cause mortality.

Applying the DYNAMO-HIA tool, we dynamically project the country-wise potential health gains and losses using feasible, i.e. observed elsewhere, risk-factor prevalence rates as benchmarks. The effects of the -worst practice- -best practice-, and the currently observed risk-factor prevalence on population health are quantified and expected changes in life expectancy, morbidity-free life years, disease cases, and cumulative mortality are reported.

ResultsApplying the best practice smoking prevalence yields the largest gains in life expectancy with 0.4 years for males and 0.3 year for females approx. 332,950 and 274,200 deaths postponed, respectively while the worst practice smoking prevalence also leads to the largest losses with 0.7 years for males and 0.9 year for females approx. 609,400 and 710,550 lives lost, respectively.

Comparing morbidity-free life years, the best practice smoking prevalence shows the highest gains for males with 0.4 years 342,800 less disease cases, whereas for females the best practice BMI prevalence yields the largest gains with 0.7 years 1,075,200 less disease cases.

ConclusionSmoking is still the risk-factor with the largest potential health gains. BMI, however, has comparatively large effects on morbidity. Future research should aim to improve knowledge of how policies can influence and shape individual and aggregated life-style-related risk-factor behavior.

KeywordsAlcohol BMI Smoking Life-style related risk-factors Health impact assessment Modeling Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article doi:10.1186-s12889-016-3299-z contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Author: Stefan K. Lhachimi - Wilma J. Nusselder - Henriette A. Smit - Paolo Baili - Kathleen Bennett - Esteve Fernández - Margar

Source: https://link.springer.com/







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