Forecasting credit growth rate in Romania: from credit boom to credit crunch Report as inadecuate




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Abstract

The specialists paid a special attention to credit growth in the transitions countries due to its sharp increase during the last years. However, once the financial crisis started in 2008, the credit activity evolution reversed. Consequently, forecasting the credit trend has become a subject of interest in the context of the present financial and economic conditions, because the credit market blockage has a negative impact on economic activity revival and leads to the amplification of the uncertainty on financial markets. The main objective of this paper is to highlight the recent credit developments in Romania and to predict their future evolution. Based on the credit growth rate endogenous factors and using a stochastic simulation econometric model, we demonstrate that this economy experiences a passage from a credit boom to a severe credit crunch. The forecasting exercise results show a credit activity contraction up to the end of 2009, demolishing the expectations related to a near economic recovery in Romania.



Item Type: MPRA Paper -

Original Title: Forecasting credit growth rate in Romania: from credit boom to credit crunch?-

English Title: Forecasting credit growth rate in Romania: from credit boom to credit crunch?-

Language: English-

Keywords: credit growth rate, forecasts, stochastic simulation, credit crunch-

Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation MethodsE - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money MultipliersC - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods: General-





Author: Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu

Source: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16740/







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