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Abstract

The purpose of this article is to describe how inflation analysis and forecasting has been carried out in the Bank, with particular emphasis on recent research and the new challenges facing the Bank following the launch of the euro on 1 January 1999. Broadly speaking the approach adopted by the Bank over a number of years has been an eclectic one which combines judgement and a range of formal approaches. The latter include structural models which are strongly influenced by basic macroeconomic theories of the small open economy SOE, indicator analysis, including a composite leading indicator, and time series methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA, vector autoregressive VAR and Bayesian VAR BVAR models. The emphasis on particular methodologies has evolved over time but in all cases judgement has played a central role.



Item Type: MPRA Paper -

Original Title: Inflation Analysis: An Overview-

Language: English-

Keywords: inflation analysis and forecasting; judgement; small open economy; ARIMA; BVAR-

Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; DeflationE - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E30 - GeneralE - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications-





Author: Quinn, Terry

Source: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11361/







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