Extrapolation of traffic data for development of traffic load models: assessment of methods used during background works of EurocodeReport as inadecuate




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1 IFSTTAR-SOA - Département Structures et Ouvrages d-Art 2 IFSTTAR-DS - Direction scientifique

Résumé : This paper reviews several extrapolation methods for example fitting a distribution to the upper tail of the data and Rice-s formula implemented in the background study of the normal load model, LM1, in Eurocode 1, Part 2. Recent extensively used extreme value theory EVT based methods block maxima method and peaks over threshold method in other domains such as meteorology for flood levels, quantity of rain, etc are also reviewed. The methods are applied on weigh-in-motion WIM data to extrapolate characteristic values of long return period. Two different types of comparisons are made on extrapolating extreme gross vehicle weight GVW, the total load on lane TLL and the induced traffic load effect TLE. The first focuses on differences between the various prediction methods, and the other on changes between past and recently recorded data in France. The results show that the EVT based method is the better one for extrapolation. Extrapolation prediction method, gross vehicle weight, total load on lane, traffic load effect, characteristic value

Mots-clés : PREVISION POIDS LOURD IMPACT CHARGE DE TRAFIC POIDS TOTAL VALEUR CARACTERISTIQUE





Author: Xiao Yi Zhou - Franziska Schmidt - Bernard Jacob -

Source: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/



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