Current log-periodic view on future world market development - Quantitative Finance > Statistical FinanceReport as inadecuate




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Abstract: Applicability of the concept of financial log-periodicity is discussed andencouragingly verified for various phases of the world stock marketsdevelopment in the period 2000-2010. In particular, a speculative forecastingscenario designed in the end of 2004, that properly predicted the world stockmarket increases in 2007, is updated by setting some more precise constraintson the time of duration of the present long-term equity market bullish phase. Atermination of this phase is evaluated to occur in around November 2009. Inparticular, on the way towards this dead-line, a Spring-Summer 2008 increase isexpected. On the precious metals market a forthcoming critical time signal isdetected at the turn of March-April 2008 which marks a tendency for at least aserious correction to begin.In the present extended version some predictions for the future oil price areincorporated. In particular a serious correction on this market is expected tostart in the coming days.



Author: Stanislaw Drozdz, Jaroslaw Kwapien, Pawel Oswiecimka, Josef Speth

Source: https://arxiv.org/







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