Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming ScenariosReport as inadecuate




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As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus Olivier Coleoptera: Curculionidae has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data 1981–2010 and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s 2011–2040 provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research TYN SC 2.0. Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index EI values calculated for different climatic conditions current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.



Author: Xuezhen Ge, Shanyong He, Tao Wang, Wei Yan, Shixiang Zong

Source: http://plos.srce.hr/



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