Insights into elevation-dependent warming in the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas from CMIP5 model simulationsReport as inadecuate




Insights into elevation-dependent warming in the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas from CMIP5 model simulations - Download this document for free, or read online. Document in PDF available to download.

Climate Dynamics

, Volume 48, Issue 11–12, pp 3991–4008

First Online: 17 August 2016Received: 04 April 2016Accepted: 08 August 2016DOI: 10.1007-s00382-016-3316-z

Cite this article as: Palazzi, E., Filippi, L. & von Hardenberg, J. Clim Dyn 2017 48: 3991. doi:10.1007-s00382-016-3316-z

Abstract

We use the output of twenty-seven Global Climate Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 CMIP5 to investigate the temperature changes and their dependence on the elevation in the Tibetan Plateau, Himalaya and Karakoram mountains and in the surrounding areas in historical model simulations and in future projections. The aim of this study is to explore if and to what extent the CMIP5 models show elevation-dependent warming EDW in this part of the globe and to investigate what are the driving factors at play and their relative importance. Our results indicate that the models show enhanced rates of warming at higher elevations in the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayan region in the twentieth century, and this phenomenon is projected to strengthen by the end of the twenty-first century under a high-emission scenario. We find a nonlinear relationship between the warming rates and the elevation, for both the minimum and the maximum temperature: regions with temperatures below the freezing level of water show more warming than the regions with temperatures above, likely suggesting a key role of mechanisms involving water phase changes, the presence-absence of snow and the snow-albedo feedback. We consider the main variables simulated by the CMIP5 models whose change may be related to temperature changes at higher elevations. We find that changes in surface albedo, atmospheric humidity and downward longwave radiation are relevant factors for EDW in the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas, with surface albedo being the leading driver.

KeywordsElevation-dependent warming Third pole environment CMIP5 models Mountain climate Model uncertainty Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article doi:10.1007-s00382-016-3316-z contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.





Author: Elisa Palazzi - Luca Filippi - Jost von Hardenberg

Source: https://link.springer.com/



DOWNLOAD PDF




Related documents