Evaluation for the Performance of the CORDEX Regional Climate Models in Simulating Rainfall Characteristics over Mbarali River Catchment in the Rufiji Basin, TanzaniaReport as inadecuate




Evaluation for the Performance of the CORDEX Regional Climate Models in Simulating Rainfall Characteristics over Mbarali River Catchment in the Rufiji Basin, Tanzania - Download this document for free, or read online. Document in PDF available to download.

This study aims to evaluate the performance of the individual Regional Climate Models RCMs used in Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment CORDEX and the ensemble average of the four RCMs to feign the characteristics of the rainfall pattern for the Mbarali River catchment in Rufiji Basin for the period of 1979 to 2005. Statistical analysis for model performance such as Root mean square error, Mean error, Pearson correlation coefficient, Mean, Median, standard deviation and trend analysis are used. In addition to the statistical measure of model performance, the models are tested on their ability to capture the observed annual cycles and interannual variability of rainfall. Results indicated that the RCMs from the CORDEX indicated a better performance to reproduce the rainfall characteristics over Mbarali River catchment in Rufiji Basin. They reproduced fairly the Era Interim annual cycle and inter-annual variability of rainfall. The ensemble average performed better than individual models in representing rainfall over Mbarali River catchment in Rufiji Basin. These suggest that rainfall simulation from the ensemble average will be used for the assessment of the hydrological impact studies over Mbarali River catchment in Rufiji Basin.

KEYWORDS

Climate Change, CORDEX, Regional Climate Models RCMs, Ensemble Average

Cite this paper

Mutayoba, E. and Kashaigili, J. 2017 Evaluation for the Performance of the CORDEX Regional Climate Models in Simulating Rainfall Characteristics over Mbarali River Catchment in the Rufiji Basin, Tanzania. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 5, 139-151. doi: 10.4236-gep.2017.54011.





Author: Edmund Mutayoba1,2*, Japhet J. Kashaigili3

Source: http://www.scirp.org/



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