Malaria Infection Has Spatial, Temporal, and Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity in Unstable Malaria Transmission Areas in Northwest EthiopiaReport as inadecuate




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Background

Malaria elimination requires successful nationwide control efforts. Detecting the spatiotemporal distribution and mapping high-risk areas are useful to effectively target pockets of malaria endemic regions for interventions.

Objective

The aim of the study was to identify patterns of malaria distribution by space and time in unstable malaria transmission areas in northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

Data were retrieved from the monthly reports stored in the district malaria offices for the period between 2003 and 2012. Eighteen districts in the highland and fringe malaria areas were included and geo-coded for the purpose of this study. The spatial data were created in ArcGIS10 for each district. The Poisson model was used by applying Kulldorff methods using the SaTScan™ software to analyze the purely temporal, spatial and space-time clusters of malaria at a district levels.

Results

The study revealed that malaria case distribution has spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal heterogeneity in unstable transmission areas. Most likely spatial malaria clusters were detected at Dera, Fogera, Farta, Libokemkem and Misrak Este districts LLR =197764.1, p<0.001. Significant spatiotemporal malaria clusters were detected at Dera, Fogera, Farta, Libokemkem and Misrak Este districts LLR=197764.1, p<0.001 between 2003-1-1 and 2012-12-31. A temporal scan statistics identified two high risk periods from 2009-1-1 to 2010-12-31 LLR=72490.5, p<0.001 and from 2003-1-1 to 2005-12-31 LLR=26988.7, p<0.001.

Conclusion

In unstable malaria transmission areas, detecting and considering the spatiotemporal heterogeneity would be useful to strengthen malaria control efforts and ultimately achieve elimination.



Author: Kassahun Alemu , Alemayehu Worku, Yemane Berhane

Source: http://plos.srce.hr/



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