Assessment of Climate Change over South America under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 Downscaling ScenariosReport as inadecuate




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Four setsof downscaling simulations based on the Eta Regional Climate Model forced by twoglobal climate models, the HadGEM2-ES and the MIROC5, and two RCP scenarios—8.5and 4.5, have been carried out. The objective of this work is to assess theclimate change over South America based on the Eta simulations. The futurechanges are shown in timeslices of 30 years: 2011-2040; 2041-2070 and2071-2100. The climate change response of the Eta simulations nested in HadGEM2-ES is larger than the Eta nested in MIROC5. Major warming area is located in thecentral part of Brazil. In austral summer, the reduction of precipitation inthe central part and the increase in the southeastern part of the continent arecommon changes in these simulations, while the EtaHadGEM2-ES intensifies thedecrease of precipitation in central Brazil, the Eta-MIROC5 expands the area ofincrease of precipitation in southern Brazil toward the end of the century. Inaustral winter, precipitation decrease is found in the northern part of SouthAmerica and in most of Central America, whereas the reduction in southeasternSouth America is limited to near coastal region. The time series oftemperatures show that warming trends are larger in the Eta-HadGEM2-ES than inthe Eta-MIROC5 simulations. Heavier precipitation rates are projected in theCentral-South of Brazil toward the end of the century. Increase in the lengthof consecutive dry days CDD in Northeast of Brazil and the decrease ofconsecutive wet days CWD in the Amazon region are common features in thesesimulations.

KEYWORDS

South America, Climate Downscaling, Climate Change Assessment, Climatic Extreme Indicators, Eta Model

Cite this paper

Chou, S. , Lyra, A. , Mourão, C. , Dereczynski, C. , Pilotto, I. , Gomes, J. , Bustamante, J. , Tavares, P. , Silva, A. , Rodrigues, D. , Campos, D. , Chagas, D. , Sueiro, G. , Siqueira, G. and Marengo, J. 2014 Assessment of Climate Change over South America under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 Downscaling Scenarios. American Journal of Climate Change, 3, 512-527. doi: 10.4236-ajcc.2014.35043.





Author: Sin Chan Chou1*, André Lyra1, Caroline Mourão1, Claudine Dereczynski2, Isabel Pilotto1, Jorge Gomes1, Josiane Bustamante1, Pris

Source: http://www.scirp.org/



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