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Abstract: Bayesian neural networks were used to model the relationship between inputparameters, Democracy, Allies, Contingency, Distance, Capability, Dependencyand Major Power, and the output parameter which is either peace or conflict.The automatic relevance determination was used to rank the importance of inputvariables. Control theory approach was used to identify input variables thatwould give a peaceful outcome. It was found that using all four controllablevariables Democracy, Allies, Capability and Dependency; or using onlyDependency or only Capabilities avoids all the predicted conflicts.



Author: Tshilidzi Marwala, Monica Lagazio

Source: https://arxiv.org/







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