Possible Futures towards a Wood-Based Bioeconomy: A Scenario Analysis for GermanyReport as inadecuate




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1

Department of Economics, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research—UFZ, Permoserstraße 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany

2

Institute for Infrastructure and Resources Management, Leipzig University, Grimmaische Straße 12, 04109 Leipzig, Germany

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Department of Ecosystem Services and German, Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research iDiv, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research GmbH—UFZ; Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany





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Academic Editor: Vincenzo Torretta

Abstract Driven by the growing awareness of the finite nature of fossil raw materials and the need for sustainable pathways of industrial production, the bio-based economy is expected to expand worldwide. Policy strategies such as the European Union Bioeconomy Strategy and national bioeconomy strategies foster this process. Besides the advantages promised by a transition towards a sustainable bioeconomy, these processes have to cope with significant uncertainties as many influencing factors play a role, such as climate change, technological and economic development, sustainability risks, dynamic consumption patterns and policy and governance issues. Based on a literature review and an expert survey, we identify influence factors for the future development of a wood-based bioeconomy in Germany. Four scenarios are generated based on different assumptions about the development of relevant influence factors. We discuss what developments in politics, industry and society have a central impact on shaping alternative futures. As such, the paper provides a knowledge base and orientation for decision makers and practitioners, and contributes to the scientific discussion on how the bioeconomy could develop. We conclude that the wood-based bioeconomy has a certain potential to develop further, if adequate political framework conditions are implemented and meet voter support, if consumers exhibit an enhanced willingness to pay for bio-based products, and if among companies, a chance-oriented advocacy coalition of bioeconomy supporters dominates over proponents of fossil pathways. View Full-Text

Keywords: scenario development; bioeconomy; Germany; uncertainty; renewable resources; wood scenario development; bioeconomy; Germany; uncertainty; renewable resources; wood





Author: Nina Hagemann 1,* , Erik Gawel 1,2, Alexandra Purkus 1, Nadine Pannicke 1 and Jennifer Hauck 3

Source: http://mdpi.com/



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