The Impact of Shale Gas on the Cost and Feasibility of Meeting Climate Targets—A Global Energy System Model Analysis and an Exploration of UncertaintiesReport as inadecuate


The Impact of Shale Gas on the Cost and Feasibility of Meeting Climate Targets—A Global Energy System Model Analysis and an Exploration of Uncertainties


The Impact of Shale Gas on the Cost and Feasibility of Meeting Climate Targets—A Global Energy System Model Analysis and an Exploration of Uncertainties - Download this document for free, or read online. Document in PDF available to download.

1

Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2AZ, UK

2

Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK





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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.



Academic Editor: John Barrett

Abstract There exists considerable uncertainty over both shale and conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extraction and its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM TIMES integrated assessment model, to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2 °C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energy system cost is relatively small up to 0.4%, and the mitigation cost increases by 1%–3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a -dash for shale gas-, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected leakage rates, are also considered; and are each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting global temperature goals. We conclude that the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globally coordinated action, but could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully. View Full-Text

Keywords: shale gas; natural gas; supply curves; climate change mitigation; energy system analysis; energy scenarios; TIMES Integrated Assessment Model TIAM; fugitive methane emissions; energy economics shale gas; natural gas; supply curves; climate change mitigation; energy system analysis; energy scenarios; TIMES Integrated Assessment Model TIAM; fugitive methane emissions; energy economics





Author: Sheridan Few 1,* , Ajay Gambhir 1, Tamaryn Napp 1, Adam Hawkes 1, Stephane Mangeon 1, Dan Bernie 2 and Jason Lowe 2

Source: http://mdpi.com/



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