k-Nearest Neighbor Neural Network Models for Very Short-Term Global Solar Irradiance Forecasting Based on Meteorological DataReport as inadecuate


k-Nearest Neighbor Neural Network Models for Very Short-Term Global Solar Irradiance Forecasting Based on Meteorological Data


k-Nearest Neighbor Neural Network Models for Very Short-Term Global Solar Irradiance Forecasting Based on Meteorological Data - Download this document for free, or read online. Document in PDF available to download.

Department of Electrical Engineering, National Taipei University of Technology, 1, Section 3, Zhong-Xiao Chung-Hsiao E. Rd., Da’an Dist., Taipei 106, Taiwan





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Abstract This paper proposes a novel methodology for very short term forecasting of hourly global solar irradiance GSI. The proposed methodology is based on meteorology data, especially for optimizing the operation of power generating electricity from photovoltaic PV energy. This methodology is a combination of k-nearest neighbor k-NN algorithm modelling and artificial neural network ANN model. The k-NN-ANN method is designed to forecast GSI for 60 min ahead based on meteorology data for the target PV station which position is surrounded by eight other adjacent PV stations. The novelty of this method is taking into account the meteorology data. A set of GSI measurement samples was available from the PV station in Taiwan which is used as test data. The first method implements k-NN as a preprocessing technique prior to ANN method. The error statistical indicators of k-NN-ANN model the mean absolute bias error MABE is 42 W-m2 and the root-mean-square error RMSE is 242 W-m2. The models forecasts are then compared to measured data and simulation results indicate that the k-NN-ANN-based model presented in this research can calculate hourly GSI with satisfactory accuracy. View Full-Text

Keywords: global solar irradiance GSI; photovoltaic PV; very short term; forecasting; k-nearest neighbor k-NN; artificial neural network ANN global solar irradiance GSI; photovoltaic PV; very short term; forecasting; k-nearest neighbor k-NN; artificial neural network ANN





Author: Chao-Rong Chen and Unit Three Kartini *

Source: http://mdpi.com/



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