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Abstract: We consider the problem of forecasting the regions at higher risk for newlyintroduced invasive species. Favourable and unfavourable regions may indeed notbe known a priori, especially for exotic species whose hosts in native rangeand newly-colonised areas can be different. Assuming that the species ismodelled by a logistic-like reaction-diffusion equation, we prove that thespatial arrangement of the favourable and unfavourable regions cantheoretically be determined using only partial measurements of the populationdensity: 1 a local -spatio-temporal- measurement, during a short time periodand, 2 a -spatial- measurement in the whole region susceptible tocolonisation. We then present a stochastic algorithm which is provedanalytically, and then on several numerical examples, to be effective inderiving these regions.



Author: Michel Cristofol LATP, Lionel Roques BIOSP, BioSP

Source: https://arxiv.org/







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