en fr Improving volcanic sulfur dioxide cloud dispersal forecasts by progressive assimilation of satellite observations Améliorer les prévisions de la dispersion dun panache volcanique de dioxyde de soufre par assimilation progReport as inadecuate




en fr Improving volcanic sulfur dioxide cloud dispersal forecasts by progressive assimilation of satellite observations Améliorer les prévisions de la dispersion dun panache volcanique de dioxyde de soufre par assimilation prog - Download this document for free, or read online. Document in PDF available to download.

* Corresponding author 1 LOA - Laboratoire d-optique atmosphérique 2 Spectroscopie de l-atmosphère, Service de Chimie Quantique et Photophysique 3 LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique 4 TACT - LATMOS LATMOS - Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales

Abstract : Forecasting the dispersal of volcanic clouds during an eruption is of primary importance, especially for ensuring aviation safety. As volcanic emissions are characterized by rapid variations of emission rate and height, the generally high level of uncertainty in the emission parameters represents a critical issue that limits the robustness of volcanic cloud dispersal forecasts. An inverse modeling scheme, combining satellite observations of the volcanic cloud with a regional chemistry-transport model, allows reconstructing this source term at high temporal resolution. We demonstrate here how a progressive assimilation of freshly acquired satellite observations, via such an inverse modeling procedure, allows for delivering robust sulfur dioxide SO2 cloud dispersal forecasts during the eruption. This approach provides a computationally cheap estimate of the expected location and mass loading of volcanic clouds, including the identification of SO2-rich parts.

Keywords : volcanic gas volcanic plume dispersal forecast sulfur dioxide satellite observations inverse modeling chemistry-transport model volcanic emissions





Author: Marie Boichu - Lieven Clarisse - Dmitry Khvorostyanov - Cathy Clerbaux -

Source: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/



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