Finite mixture models for sensitivity analysis of thermal hydraulic codes for passive safety systems analysisReport as inadecuate




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* Corresponding author 1 Dipartimento di Energia 2 Chaire Sciences des Systèmes et Défis Energétiques EDF-ECP-Supélec LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - EA 2606, SSEC - Chaire Sciences des Systèmes et Défis Energétiques EDF-ECP-Supélec 3 Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai

Abstract : For safety analysis of Nuclear Power Plants NPPs, Best Estimate BE Thermal Hydraulic TH codes are used to predict system response in normal and accidental conditions. The assessment of the uncertainties of TH codes is a critical issue for system failure probability quantification. In this paper, we consider passive safety systems of advanced NPPs and present a novel approach of Sensitivity Analysis SA. The approach is based on Finite Mixture Models FMMs to approximate the probability density function i.e., the uncertainty of the output of the passive safety system TH code with a limited number of simulations. We propose a novel Sensitivity Analysis SA method for keeping the computational cost low: an Expectation Maximization EM algorithm is used to calculate the saliency of the TH code input variables for identifying those that most affect the system functional failure. The novel approach is compared with a standard variance decomposition method on a case study considering a Passive Containment Cooling System PCCS of an Advanced Pressurized reactor AP1000. 2





Author: Francesco Di Maio - Giancarlo Nicola - Enrico Zio - Yu Yu -

Source: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/



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