Description and validation of a non path-dependent model for projecting contrasting urban growth futuresReport as inadecuate




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1 GEODE - Géographie de l-environnement 2 Univ Strasbourg, CNRS UMR 7362, Lab Image, Environm LIVE, F-67083 Strasbourg, France 3 École Spéciale des Travaux Publics, du Bâtiment et de l-Industrie ESTP Paris 4 Toulouse Tech Transfer 5 University of California

Abstract : This paper presents a model SLEUTH* for projecting contrasting urban growth futures.It is derived from the SLEUTH model, which has been modified in order to incorporate an additional spatially explicit factor, and to be used in a fully controlled forecasting mode. Our aim is to spatially allocate urban growth, its amount and pattern, according to predefined prospective scenarios and assuming a non path-dependency approach. This modelling approach aims at being used under a -story and simulation- SAS approach, which constrains the model validation. To assess model efficiency, three types of tests have been undertaken: 1 sensitivity tests; 2 reproduction of known changes over a past period; and 3 simulation of changes that break trends. Results show that SLEUTH* conveniently simulates expected urban changes for exploring contrasting scenarios that are the basis for land planning strategies.

Keywords : land use land cover model trajectories scenarios trends vs. contrasting futures SLEUTH





Author: Thomas Houet - Rahim Aguejdad - Omar Doukari - Guillaume Battaia - Keith Clarke -

Source: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/



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