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Abstract: Recent $daily$ data of the Southern Oscillation Index have been analyzed. Thepower spectrum indicates major intrinsic geophysical short periods. We findinteresting ``high frequency- oscillations at 24, 27, 37, 76, 100 and 365days. In particular the 24 days peaks may correspond to the Branstator-Kushnirwave, the 27 days may be due to the moon effect rotation, the 37 days peaks ismost probably related to the Madden and Julian Oscillation. It is not yet clearthe explanations for the 76 days which may be associated with interseasonaloscillation in the tropical atmosphere; the 100 days could be resulting from amere beat between the 37 and 27 periods, or the 76 and 365 days. Next theseperiods are used to reconstruct the signal and to produce a forecast for thenext 9 months, at the time of writing. After cleansing the signal of thoseperiodicities a detrended fluctuation analysis is performed to reveal thenature of the stochastic structures in the signal and whether specificcorrelation can be found. We study the evolution of the distribution of firstreturn times, in particular between $extreme$ $events$. A markedly significantdifference from the expected distribution for uncorrelated events is found.



Author: Filippo Petroni, Marcel Ausloos

Source: https://arxiv.org/



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