Ambient temperature and coronary heart disease mortality in Beijing, China: a time series studyReport as inadecuate




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Environmental Health

, 11:56

First Online: 21 August 2012Received: 04 July 2012Accepted: 17 August 2012DOI: 10.1186-1476-069X-11-56

Cite this article as: Tian, Z., Li, S., Zhang, J. et al. Environ Health 2012 11: 56. doi:10.1186-1476-069X-11-56

Abstract

BackgroundMany studies have examined the association between ambient temperature and mortality. However, less evidence is available on the temperature effects on coronary heart disease CHD mortality, especially in China. In this study, we examined the relationship between ambient temperature and CHD mortality in Beijing, China during 2000 to 2011. In addition, we compared time series and time-stratified case-crossover models for the non-linear effects of temperature.

MethodsWe examined the effects of temperature on CHD mortality using both time series and time-stratified case-crossover models. We also assessed the effects of temperature on CHD mortality by subgroups: gender female and male and age age > =65 and age < 65. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the non-linear effects of temperature on CHD mortality up to 15 lag days. We used Akaike information criterion to assess the model fit for the two designs.

ResultsThe time series models had a better model fit than time-stratified case-crossover models. Both designs showed that the relationships between temperature and group-specific CHD mortality were non-linear. Extreme cold and hot temperatures significantly increased the risk of CHD mortality. Hot effects were acute and short-term, while cold effects were delayed by two days and lasted for five days. The old people and women were more sensitive to extreme cold and hot temperatures than young and men.

ConclusionsThis study suggests that time series models performed better than time-stratified case-crossover models according to the model fit, even though they produced similar non-linear effects of temperature on CHD mortality. In addition, our findings indicate that extreme cold and hot temperatures increase the risk of CHD mortality in Beijing, China, particularly for women and old people.

KeywordsAmbient temperature Coronary heart disease Mortality Cold effect Hot effect Gender Age AbbreviationsCHDCoronary heart disease

DLNMDistributed lag non-linear model

ICD-10International classification of diseases, 10th revision

Q-AICAkaike information criterion for quasi-Poisson.

Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article doi:10.1186-1476-069X-11-56 contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Author: Zhaoxing Tian - Shanshan Li - Jinliang Zhang - Jouni JK Jaakkola - Yuming Guo

Source: https://link.springer.com/







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