Optimal health and disease management using spatial uncertainty: a geographic characterization of emergent artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum distributions in Southeast AsiaReport as inadecuate




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International Journal of Health Geographics

, 15:37

First Online: 24 October 2016Received: 19 May 2016Accepted: 23 September 2016DOI: 10.1186-s12942-016-0064-6

Cite this article as: Grist, E.P.M., Flegg, J.A., Humphreys, G. et al. Int J Health Geogr 2016 15: 37. doi:10.1186-s12942-016-0064-6

Abstract

BackgroundArtemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites are now present across much of mainland Southeast Asia, where ongoing surveys are measuring and mapping their spatial distribution. These efforts require substantial resources. Here we propose a generic ‘smart surveillance’ methodology to identify optimal candidate sites for future sampling and thus map the distribution of artemisinin resistance most efficiently.

MethodsThe approach uses the ‘uncertainty’ map generated iteratively by a geostatistical model to determine optimal locations for subsequent sampling.

ResultsThe methodology is illustrated using recent data on the prevalence of the K13-propeller polymorphism a genetic marker of artemisinin resistance in the Greater Mekong Subregion.

ConclusionThis methodology, which has broader application to geostatistical mapping in general, could improve the quality and efficiency of drug resistance mapping and thereby guide practical operations to eliminate malaria in affected areas.

KeywordsSurveillance Drug resistance Malaria Artemisinin Greater Mekong Subregion AbbreviationsACTartemisinin-based combination therapy

GMSGreater Mekong Subregion GMS

K13Kelch 13 gene

MAPmalaria atlas project

RSAsring stage survival assays

SNPsingle nucleotide polymorphism

TRACtracking resistance to artemisinin collaboration

Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article doi:10.1186-s12942-016-0064-6 contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Author: Eric P. M. Grist - Jennifer A. Flegg - Georgina Humphreys - Ignacio Suay Mas - Tim J. C. Anderson - Elizabeth A. Ashl

Source: https://link.springer.com/



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