Updating our beliefs about inconsistency: The Monty-Hall caseReport as inadecuate




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1 IJN - Institut Jean-Nicod 2 GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d-Aix-Marseille

Abstract : In the experiments on the Monty-Hall puzzle, a large majority of participants gives a response different from Experimenters- Bayesian solution. We analyze this discrepancy as a problem of interpretation of the revision process of probabilities, induced by the statement of the Monty-Hall puzzle. Experimenters- solution actually stems from a traditional focusing situation whereas participants may for pragmatic reasons, build an updating representation of the puzzle. We establish that the descriptive explanations for participants- modal response provided by the psychological literature on Monty-Hall such as the ones based on heuristics can be translated into the adequate rule of revision in this updating framework.





Author: Jean Baratgin -

Source: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/



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