# Anexo 6. Reporte de Simulación por Crystal Ball- Evaluación del Proyecto de Inversión en el Negocio de la Industria de la Tortilla - Departamento de Administración de Empresas y Mercadotecnia.

Anexo 6. Reporte de Simulación por Crystal Ball- Evaluación del Proyecto de Inversión en el Negocio de la Industria de la Tortilla - Departamento de Administración de Empresas y Mercadotecnia. - - Maestría en Administración de Empresas con especialidad en Proyectos de Inversión. - Escuela de Negocios y Economía, - Universidad de las Américas Puebla.

Author: Cruz Zerón, César

Source: http://catarina.udlap.mx/

## Teaser

Crystal Ball Report Simulation started on 16-1-06 at 10:35:14 Simulation stopped on 16-1-06 at 10:35:29 Forecast: VPN = Cell: C59 Summary: Display Range is from -\$545,927.28 to \$3,138,037.08 \$ Entire Range is from -\$933,841.64 to \$3,280,383.45 \$ After 1,000 Trials, the Std.
Error of the Mean is \$22,076.05 Statistics: Trials Mean Median Mode Standard Deviation Variance Skewness Kurtosis Coeff.
of Variability Range Minimum Range Maximum Range Width Mean Std.
Error Probability of VPN =0 Crystal Ball Student Edition Not for Commercial Use Value 1000 \$1,284,653.89 \$1,294,840.59 --\$698,105.89 4.87E+11 -0.01 2.70 0.54 -\$933,841.64 \$3,280,383.45 \$4,214,225.09 \$22,076.05 96.71% Forecast: VPN = 1,000 Trials Frequency Chart 4 Outliers .028 28 .021 21 .014 14 .007 7 .000 0 -\$545,927.28 \$375,063.81 \$1,296,054.90 \$2,217,045.99 \$3,138,037.08 \$ Forecast: VPN = (cont'd) Cell: C59 Percentiles: Percentile 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% \$ -\$933,841.64 \$337,048.58 \$699,939.42 \$905,186.44 \$1,104,442.38 \$1,294,840.59 XI.6 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% \$1,440,624.10 \$1,650,822.83 \$1,908,984.65 \$2,189,429.54 \$3,280,383.45 End of Forecast Forecast: TIR = Cell: C60 Summary: Display Range is from -4% to 157% % Entire Range is from -15% to 159% % After 1,000 Trials, the Std.
Error of the Mean is 1% Statistics: Trials Mean Median Mode Standard Deviation Variance Skewness Kurtosis Coeff.
of Variability Range Minimum Range Maximum Range Width Mean Std.
Error Probability of TMAR 23.88% Crystal Ball Student Edition Not for Commercial Use Value 1000 77% 75% --31% 10% 0.17 2.59 0.41 -15% 159% 174% 0.99% 96% Forecast: TIR = 1,000 Trials Frequency Chart 3 Outliers .029 29 .022 21.75 .015 14.5 .007 7.25 .000 0 -4% 37% 77% 117% 157% % Forecast: TIR = (cont'd) Cell: C60 Percentiles: Percentile 0% 10% 20% % -15% 36% 50% XI.6 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 59% 67% 75% 83% 95% 106% 120% 159% End of Forecast Assumptions Assumption: Año 1 Triangular distribution w...